The Oxnard Journal Predicts the Election . . .

With 62,876 Registered Voters in the City of Oxnard. We need to take a hard look at Turn-out. Presidential Election Years are by far the greatest for voter participation. But in Oxnard usually half the voters cast votes on those occasions. For a Gubernatorial Election year the turn-out is less::::::about 30-35%. This year, there is very little passion in the race for Governor of California so we'll base our prediction on a 30% turn-out. That leaves us with 18,861 votes up for grabs.

Partisan demographics put Oxnard far to the left with a meter-reading of Democrats with an almost 70%~30% over-ride of registered Republicans. Two candidates for the Council are Republicans: Dean Maulhardt and Susan Komar. So this puts Susan in the high numbers with Republicans as she has garnered some favorable party support and will gain votes based on party affiliation and being a woman. But, numbers are against the GOP with the mass voting block being registered as Democrats.

With Council Elections, the top two vote getters who spawn get to sit on the Council. Here is how the OxJo sees it coming out. [[sorry to the candidates who come out third and lower. . . but this is a prediction and your actions in campaigning and networking can make these predictions wrong]]

SAUL MEDINA - - - - - 16,000+ VOTES

Second Seat :::: A real Toss Up ======= it's gonna be by a spread of less than less than 50 votes
and this spread may be so small that a possible recount will be demanded by an 'Almost won'
office-seeker. The OxJo Predicts it will all shake out in this order. . .

AL DUFF // DEAN MAULHARDT // ANDRES HERRERA - - - - 14,OOO+ VOTES

MARTIN JONES - - - - - 12,000+

SUSAN KOMAR - - - - - 11,000+

ALEX ESCOBEL - - - - - 7,500

ELIAS BANALES Jr - - - 6,000

TIM HAMMONDS - - - - 5,000

MAYOR LOPEZ WILL WIN WITH 14,000+

BE SURE TO VOTE EARLY AND OFTEN. . . .

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Hope I hear back from you.

Bill Winter